According to ECFR, Europe can now move beyond its exclusive nuclear focus with Iran, should explore whether Iran can deliver more constructively on regional issues, should endorse an ambitious initiative on regional security, and should also establish a formal structure for deepening its diplomatic and economic relations with Iran, including the negotiation of an energy partnership. Europe can now move beyond its exclusive nuclear focus with Iran, and shift to a relationship based on engagement not containment.

Belgian police are investigating the firebombing of Belgium’s biggest Shia mosque in March, which killed the imam. The suspect they arrested claims to be a Salafist (hardline Sunni) protesting against Shia backing for the Syrian regime. Grieving worshippers chanted Shia slogans at the scene, eerily echoing far bloodier incidents in places such as Pakistan (recent examples include a murderous grenade assault on a Sunni demonstration in April and an attack on a bus in February that killed 18 Shia passengers).

European Shia-Sunni acrimony is part of a many-sided contest over the future of the continent’s tens of millions of Muslims, says Jonathan Laurence, a scholar at Boston College. The religious authorities in migrant-sending countries like Turkey and Morocco struggle to keep their people loyal to their own varieties of Sunni practice: they see Shia Islam and hardline Sunni groups like the Salafists as equally dangerous and insidious temptations for their sons and daughters in Europe

Strife even reaches places like South-East Asia where few Shias live. Malaysia has presented itself to the world as a tolerant Muslim-majority state. But it bans the preaching of Shia Islam, with particular ferocity since December 2010, when dozens of Shias were arrested. They say they were merely practising their faith (which is legally allowed), not preaching it. Yusuf al-Qaradawi, a Qatar-based preacher often described as the de facto spiritual guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, has recently kept up a barrage of verbal attacks on the Shias. He is president of the International Union for Muslim Scholars, a loose Brotherhood-inspired body designed to pronounce on issues of common concern to Muslims. Founded in the friendlier climate of 2004, its top ranks also include Shia clergy.

But Mr Qaradawi now attacks Shias for compromising the oneness of God (about the worst thing a Muslim can do) by ascribing semi-divine status to the people they regard as Muhammad’s legitimate successors. Another accusation is that Shias poach souls in Sunni lands. Time was when Mr Qaradawi praised the feats of Hizbullah, the Iranian-backed Shia militia in Lebanon, as fighters against Israel. But in recent punditry he has stressed the gap between Sunni and Shia beliefs and passionately called for regime change in Syria, where, among other things, a Sunni majority is rebelling against a ruling elite whose Alawite belief (see table) is a Shia offshoot. Senior Shia clergy have deplored his hardening line. Mr Qaradawi, whose utterances command attention from Marseilles to the north Caucasus, also backs Bahrain’s Sunni rulers in their anti-Shia stance.

In Tehran, residents took to the streets late Thursday, waving flags from cars to celebrate the outline agreement, which sets the stage for work on a final accord over the next three months. "We are very happy, so happy. We haven't make any big progress in 10 years, we are very happy that we can finally go forward," a local resident named Musa said. "It's a real victory for us." Another Tehran resident, Mina, added: "I'm so happy when seeing the cheerful crowds around me. We can finally step out of those pressures. You can see Iranians are friendly, and we have a long history. We are not against of any country in the world." Before taking off from Geneva, Zarif was pictured on his official plane being greeted and posing for photos with traveling reporters.

The United States, Iran and five other world powers have sealed a breakthrough framework agreement outlining limits on Iran's nuclear programme to keep it from being able to produce atomic weapons. Reading out a joint statement on Thursday evening, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said a "decisive step" has been achieved. "This is a crucial decision laying the agreed basis for the final text of joint comprehensive plan of action. We can now start drafting the text and annexes," said Mogherini, who has acted as a coordinator for the six powers - Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.

The US and Iran each hailed the efforts of their diplomats over eight days of marathon talks in Swiss city of Lausanne. Speaking at the White House, US President Barack Obama called it a "good deal" that would address concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions. The US president said that the US and its allies had "reached a historic understanding with Iran". Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called it a "win-win outcome".

The Islamic Republic has been promised an end to years of crippling economic sanctions, but only if negotiators transform the plan into a comprehensive pact by June 30.

'Solid foundation'

US Secretary of State John Kerry said the agreement in Lausanne was a "solid foundation for a good deal". Al Jazeera's James Bays, reporting from Lausanne, said that US diplomats still faced the challenge of convincing opposition Republican dissenters in Congress, and its strongest ally, Israel, that the deal was sufficient. "There are a lot of places where this deal will not be accepted and one of those is Israel," Bays said.

Obama said his security officials would be working with Israel and Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, to make sure their concerns are addressed. Israel voiced its "strong opposition" to the deal. In a phone conversation with Obama, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a final deal based on this agreement "would threaten the survival of Israel". House Speaker John Boehner said it would be "naive to suggest the Iranian regime will not continue to use its nuclear programme, and any economic relief, to further destabilize the region." But Obama said that the issues at stake are "bigger than politics". "These are matters of war and peace," he said, and if Congress kills the agreement "international unity will collapse, and the path to conflict will widen. The deal will limit Iran's nuclear activity to the Natanz plant and reduce the number of centrifuges it operates from 19,000 today to just over 6,104. Iran has also agreed to not build any new facilities for the purpose of enriching uranium for 15 years.

Zarif said the countries had agreed an elaborate mechanism if any of the parties to the agreement "returned to old practices" and reneged on their obligations. "We will not allow excuses that will allow a return to the old system," Zarif said.

Mogherini said the seven nations would now start writing the text of a final accord. She cited several agreed-upon restrictions on Iran's enrichment of material that can be used either for energy production or in nuclear warheads. She said Iran will not produce weapons-grade plutonium. Sanctions related to Iran's nuclear programmes would be suspended by the US, the United Nations and the European Union after the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Iran's compliance.

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies.

IRAN’S NEIGHBOURS AND A NUCLEAR DEAL

ECFR published in December 2014 the following notes: 'The outcome of talks on Iran’s nuclear programme and the continuing conflict in Syria remain major stumbling blocks to improving Tehran’s relationship with its regional neighbours. The centrepiece of the Rouhani presidency has been attempts to reach a deal with the E3+3 countries (Germany, France, UK, Russia, US and China) on Iran’s nuclear programme. A resolution of the nuclear standoff and the dismantling of sanctions would be a victory for President Rouhani. However the prospect of a less isolated Iran may not be welcomed by hardliners in Riyadh or Jerusalem and reshaping Iran’s relationship with these and other neighbours will be a key challenge for Tehran. 

The E3+3 and Iran have managed to insulate nuclear negotiations from the conflict in Syria and Iraq. But the emergence of a common threat from ISIS, the West’s desire for regional cooperation and bridge building with Iran has elicited mixed reactions in the Gulf. Authors contributing to the latest issue of Gulf Analysis assess Iran’s relationships with Saudi Arabia, Israel, the smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, Turkey and Hezbollah:

• Riyadh’s initial cautious optimism about the new President Rouhani disappeared amid Saudi fears of a US rapprochement with Iran. The extension of the E3+3 nuclear negotiations has kept Riyadh-Tehran rivalries alive while the GCC has failed to present a united front against a purported Iran threat.

• Israel believes the extension of the deadline to mid-2015 is Tehran playing for time to build a nuclear weapon and that Rouhani is not in charge of Iranian security policy. The dominant Israeli government view opposes a nuclear deal and is actively working with a Republican US Congress to prevent further progress.

• the smaller GCC states have a less antagonistic relationship with Iran but look to the US for approval before pursuing closer ties. Pointed is the UAE’s conciliatory approach to Tehran and improving economic links, Qatar’s strategic ties through shared ownership of gas assets, Oman’s shared sovereignty over the Straits of Hormuz and Kuwait’s recent trade agreement with Iran.

• Turkey’s growing economic and security cooperation with Iran has not resulted in aligned political priorities in the wider Middle East. Syria’s Assad regime is opposed by Ankara but supported by Tehran. However Turkey’s border security concerns over ISIS could be central to its future relationship with Iran.

• a shared commitment to the survival of the Assad regime and the fight against ISIS means Hezbollah’s political and paramilitary relationship with Iran is unlikely to change significantly in the coming years. The group’s critical link is to Iran’s Supreme Leadership.'

• 'Diplomatic Spin: EU3+3 talks on Iran's nuclear file' is a commentary from 21 November 2014, drafted by Steven Blockmans (CEPS). The paper presents various views on the state of affairs and is prepared based on the following four aspects:
  1. Narrowing the gap;
  2. A hostile international environment;
  3. Domestic challenges and;
  4. A limited extension of the talks.

The CEPS Policy Brief 'Next steps toward a final deal with Iran' argues that the best hope for success lies in continued engagement and consistent incremental progress in the negotiations, with structured concessions on both sides. This should occur, however, not in a two- but a three-step framework based on lengthening Iran’s ‘breakout’ period while re-engaging with the country both politically and economically. The EU is in a unique position to lead this process. Having greater flexibility than either the US or Iran, its main tasks will be that of maintaining the negotiating momentum and broadening dialogue with Iran.

WHAT IRAN WANTS IN 2014 (Reuters 8 January 2014):

TEHRAN – 'When I campaigned to become President of Iran, I promised to balance realism and the pursuit of the Islamic Republic’s ideals – and won Iranian voters’ support by a large margin. By virtue of the popular mandate that I received, I am committed to moderation and common sense, which is now guiding all of my government’s policies. That commitment led directly to the interim international agreement reached in November in Geneva on Iran’s nuclear program. It will continue to guide our decision-making in 2014.

Indeed, in terms of foreign policy, my government is discarding extreme approaches. We seek effective and constructive diplomatic relations and a focus on mutual confidence-building with our neighbors and other regional and international actors, thereby enabling us to orient our foreign policy toward economic development at home. To this end, we will work to eliminate tensions in our foreign relations and strengthen our ties with traditional and new partners alike. This obviously requires domestic consensus-building and transparent goal-setting – processes that are now underway.

While we will avoid confrontation and antagonism, we will also actively pursue our larger interests. But, given an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world, challenges can be addressed only through interaction and active cooperation among states. No country – including big powers – can effectively address on its own the challenges that it faces. Indeed, developing and emerging economies’ rapid “catch-up growth” suggests that their aggregate economic weight is about to surpass that of the advanced world. Today’s developing and emerging countries are likely to account for nearly 60% of world GDP by 2030, up from around 40% in 2000, enabling them to play a much greater role on the world stage.

In such a period of transition, Iran can enhance its global role. The election this year, in which close to 75% of eligible voters turned out, showed how our religious democracy is maturing. Iran’s ancient culture and civilization, long state continuity, geopolitical position, social stability amid regional turmoil, and well-educated youth enable us to look to the future with confidence, and aspire to assume the major global role that our people deserve – a role that no actor in global politics can ignore. We are also considering how to rebuild and improve our bilateral and multilateral relations with European and North American countries on the basis of mutual respect.

This requires easing tensions and implementing a comprehensive approach that includes economic ties. We can begin by avoiding any new strain in relations between Iran and the United States and, at the same time, endeavoring to eliminate inherited tensions that continue to mar relations between our countries. While we may not be able to forget the mistrust and suspicion that have haunted Iranians’ thinking about US governments for the last 60 years, now we must focus on the present and look to the future. That means rising above petty politics and leading, rather than following, pressure groups in our respective countries.

In our view, cooperating on issues of mutual interest and concern would contribute to easing tensions in our region as well. This means countering those in the US and our region who seek to distract international attention from issues in which they are directly involved and prevent Iran from enhancing its regional status. By diminishing the prospects for a permanent negotiated agreement on our nuclear program, such behavior increases the likelihood that the Iran-US standoff will continue.

Our region is grappling more than ever with sectarianism, group enmities, and potential new breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism. At the same time, the recent use of chemical weapons in Syria could haunt the region’s peoples for many years. We believe that, under such circumstances, a voice of moderation in the region could affect the course of events in a constructive and positive way. There is no doubt that the turmoil in nearby countries affects the interests of many regional and global actors, which need to act in concert to ensure long-term stability. Iran, as a major regional power, is fully prepared to move in this direction, sparing no effort to facilitate solutions. So those who portray Iran as a threat and thus seek to undermine its regional and global credibility should cease – in the interest of peace and tranquility in the region and beyond.

I am profoundly disturbed over the humanitarian tragedy in Syria and the enormous suffering that the Syrian people have endured for almost three years. Representing a people who have experienced the horror of chemical weapons, my government strongly condemned their use in the Syrian conflict. I am also concerned that parts of Syrian territory have become breeding grounds for extremist ideologies and rallying points for terrorists, which is reminiscent of the situation on our eastern border in the 1990’s. This is an issue of concern to many other countries as well, and finding a durable political solution in Syria requires cooperation and joint efforts.

So we are pleased that in 2013 diplomacy prevailed over threats of military intervention in Syria. We must build on this headway and understand that Syria is in dire need of coordinated regional and international efforts. We are ready to contribute to peace and stability in Syria in the course of serious negotiations among regional and extra-regional parties. Here, too, we need to prevent the talks from becoming a zero-sum game. That is no less true of Iran’s peaceful nuclear-energy program, which has been subject to enormous hype in recent decades. Since the early 1990’s, one prediction after another regarding how close Iran was to acquiring a nuclear bomb has proved baseless. Throughout this period, alarmists tried to paint Iran as a threat to the Middle East and the world.

We all know who the chief agitator is, and what purposes are to be served by hyping this issue. We know also that this claim fluctuates in proportion to the amount of international pressure to stop settlement construction and end the occupation of Palestinian lands. These false alarms continue, despite US national intelligence estimates according to which Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon. In fact, we are committed not to work toward developing and producing a nuclear bomb. As enunciated in the fatwa issued by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, we strongly believe that the development, production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons are contrary to Islamic norms. We never even contemplated the option of acquiring nuclear weapons, because we believe that such weapons could undermine our national-security interests; as a result, they have no place in Iran’s security doctrine. Even the perception that Iran may develop nuclear weapons is detrimental to our security and overall national interest.

During my presidential campaign, I committed myself to doing everything in my power to fast-track a resolution to the standoff over our nuclear-energy program. To fulfill this commitment and benefit from the window of opportunity that the recent election opened, my government is prepared to leave no stone unturned in seeking a mutually acceptable permanent solution. Following up on November’s interim agreement, we are ready to continue to work with the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany) and others with a view to ensuring our nuclear program’s full transparency. The peaceful nuclear capability that we have achieved will be used within an internationally recognized framework of safeguards, and it will be accessible to multilateral monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, as has been the case in the past several years. In this way, the international community can ensure the exclusively peaceful nature of our nuclear program.

We will never forgot our right to benefit from nuclear energy; but we are ready to work toward removing any ambiguity and answer any reasonable question about our program. The continuation of pressure, arm-twisting, intimidation, and measures aimed at cutting off Iranians’ access to a whole range of necessities – from technology to medicines and foodstuffs – can only poison the atmosphere and undermine the conditions needed to make progress. As we showed in 2013, Iran is fully prepared to engage seriously with the international community and to negotiate with our interlocutors in good faith. We hope that our counterparts, too, are ready to take advantage of this window of opportunity'.

On 15 November, at the Washington Ideas Form 2013, susan Rice discussed opposition to Iran talks: "it's premature to judge". The Atlantic reports: On Wednesday, Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning to the international community. A bad deal on Iran's nuclear program, the Israeli prime minister cautioned in an address to the Israeli parliament, could lead to war. As U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice sees it, however, the Israeli leader is getting ahead of himself. "I think it's important that everybody understand what the deal is that needs to be reached and then they can make a judgment on its contours," Rice said this afternoon, during an interview with Walter Isaacson at the Washington Ideas Forum in Washington, D.C.

"You think [Netanyahu] doesn't understand the deal?" Isaacson asked. "Well it's not done, so by definition it's premature to judge it because the outlines have yet to be finalized." With an interim deal with Iran stalled, Rice attributed the gridlock to Iranian reservations, not French opposition, as some have reported. The French are "fully on board," she said. "Some of the reporting on this has been frankly misleading." "Rice also addressed friction with another longtime ally in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia. Ever since the Saudis took the stunning step in October of rejecting a seat on the U.N. Security Council—in protest over Western decisions to not intervene militarily in Syria and reach out diplomatically to Iran—speculation has mounted about just how frayed relations are between Washington and Riyadh.

And, as The New York Times recently reported, the White House, in reevaluating its Middle East strategy, appears to have prioritized striking a nuclear deal with Iran, brokering Israeli-Palestinian peace, and resolving the Syrian civil war over facilitating a political transition in Egypt.

At the same Forum, John McCain argued: "As the Obama administration scrambles to hammer out an interim nuclear deal with Iran, John McCain had harsh words for his "friend" and former Senate colleague John Kerry. This guy has been a human wrecking ball," the Arizona senator said on Thursday in an interview with Jeffrey Goldberg at the Forum in Washington, D.C. "I'm very disappointed.

"McCain's blunt characterization of the secretary of state was just one stroke in the bleak picture he painted of America's receding influence in the world and specifically the Middle East. "Our whole policy in the Middle East—and it reverberates around the world, by the way—is in such disarray that I have never seen anything like it in my lifetime," McCain said. "Fly into Riyadh and talk to the king of Saudi Arabia. Fly into Egypt and praise their steps toward democracy." The Obama administration, McCain argued, is practicing diplomacy by "fire drill."

"If America doesn't lead, then bad guys will lead," he added. "And that's just an historical fact and that's the way the world is today." The Obama administration's approach to striking a nuclear deal with Iran, McCain noted, was fundamentally flawed. "Why should Iran have the right to enrich [uranium] when they have a clear record of seeking to and taking action to acquire nuclear weapons?" he asked. "Canada doesn't exercise a right to enrich uranium. Mexico doesn't." March 9, 2015, 47 Republican senators send an open letter to Iran in which they say that without Congressional approval, any deal would be nothing more than an agreement between Mr Obama and Ayatollah Khamenei on which Zarif responded .

During his inauguration speech, Rohani called the West to withdraw sanctions against Iran and treat the country with respect. In addition, the new head of state promised its people a government of wisdom and hope, which represents all Iranians. One of his goals is better relations with the United States, after a break in the links of up to 34 years. The White House said Sunday is prepared to deal with the new government on the nuclear program of Iran, if Tehran gives more openness in dialogue.

His speech was about reconciliation and rapprochement, both with his own people and with other countries. Rohani pledged themselves to work for better rights for women, less government intervention and a stronger economy. Whether he gets this done, is still questionable. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has the final say in politics.

On August 6, the EU announced to want early resumption atom consultation with Iran. The international community suspects Iran of working in secret on a nuclear weapon. Iran denies, but does not allow foreign researchers to inspect the nuclear program. The European Union has urged the new Iranian President to schedule fast 'meaningful talks' about controversial nuclear program. According the EU, Iran must remove soon concerns about its nuclear program. Foreign Chief of the EU Ashton congratulated Mr. Rohani with his appointment as president, but urged at the same time to seek a quick fix.

According to Ashton, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany are ready to resume the atom consutation as soon as possible. The past year there were four consultations, but this has so far led to nothing. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced that ' this can be no longer postponed”. Russia wants to continue consultations on the controversial nuclear program in September. UN nuclear agency may met (in Vienna?) in August. Diplomats will use IAEA’s quarterly report on Irans nuclear program in late August and ahead of a week long session of the UN agency’s 35 nations governing board in September.

Rohani said Tuesday during his first press conference as president that he is “determined to resolve the dispute over the nuclear program and that he is ready to perform' serious and substantive negotiations with the West”. He stressed that nothing is solved with threats.

Speaking at the White House shortly after the historic call, Obama said his discussion with Rouhani had shown the "basis for resolution" of the dispute over Iran nuclear programme. The conversation, in which Obama communicated his "deep respect for the Iranian people", capped a week of diplomatic breakthroughs. Rouhani ended a five-day visit to New York for the UN general assembly with a striking offer to work rapidly to defuse tensions with America, and hailed the US as "a great nation" – a dramatic shift in tone for an Iranian leader.

Earlier, at a press conference in New York, Rouhani made the most conciliatory remarks heard from Tehran in a decade and also offered to prepare a concrete plan for resolving the nuclear stalemate to a new round of negotiations in Geneva on 15 October. He said Tehran might go even further, hinting at a possible confidence-building measure to be announced at the talks. But it was Rouhani's tone that was most remarkable, at the end of a week in which he sought to present Iran as a reborn country, following his June election. "The environment that has been created is quite different from the past, and those who have brought the change was the people of Iran," he said. "The first step has been taken here which is a beginning for better relations with other countries and in particular, between the two great nations of Iran and US. "So the understanding between our peoples will grow and our governments will first stop the escalation of tensions, and then defuse those tensions."

The conciliatory language marked a radical change from the presidency of his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and a break from tradition dating to the 1979 revolution of referring to the US as the "Great Satan". It mirrored a change on the streets of Tehran, where the ritual chanting of "Death to America" has almost died out at public gatherings since the elections. "Step by step, we will build confidence between our presidents and our countries," Rouhani said " With sufficient will on both sides – and I assure you that on Iran's side the will is 100% – the nuclear file will be resolved in a short period of time."

Rouhani rejected suggestions that his flexibility at the negotiating table was constrained by hardline forces back in Iran. "My government has full authority in these negotiations with support from all three arms of government as well as the people of Iran. I have complete backing." Nevertheless, in an indication of the precarious position in which Rouhani finds himself, the state news agency in Iran earlier this week disputed the translation of an interview he conducted with CNN. In the interview, Rouhani acknowledged that the Holocaust took place. CNN pointed out that the translator for the interview was provided by the Iranian government.

The Green Revolution, which took place after the elections in which Ahmadinejad was re-elect, has dominated the news for weeks. For the first time since years the Iranian population went on the streets in mass, against warnings to protest against the election fraud and the result of the poll. Internet played a crucial role: pictures and video's were sent around the world, so that everybody was witness of the unrest and rough approach by the ruling government, managed by Ahmadinejad and religious leader Khamenei.

The Iran-United States Claims Tribunal was established on 19 January 1981 by the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America to resolve certain claims by nationals of one State Party against the other State Party and certain claims between the State Parties.

To date, the Tribunal has finalized over 3,900 cases. Currently on the Tribunal’s docket are several large and complex claims between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America.